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The Writing is on the Wall, But I’m Not Sure Joe Manchin Can Read It

Joe Manchin is up for reelection in 2024. He has hinted that he might run for president. Yeah, and I am going to try to go out for Miss America. I have no doubt that he feels that he has a real shot at it, but he’s wrong. The thing is that he faces an uphill battle getting reelected to the Senate. I don’t think he even knows what his party affiliation would be.

Manchin just gave an interview where he was asked about his party affiliation. West Virginia is a very deep red state. President Trump won the state by 39 points in 2020. Manchin used to be very popular, but since he sold out his voters to the extremists in the Democratic Party, he just isn’t as popular anymore. It has been rumored that Manchin would have switched parties sometime in the past two years, but he hates Mitch McConnell. There is a lot of that going around.

The governor of West Virginia, Jim Justice, a former Democrat himself wants to run for Manchin’s seat. Both he and Manchin are friends and they are both acting coy about making an announcement. Recent polling shows Justice ahead of Manchin by 10 points. I just think that Manchin would rather retire than to lose an election, especially by a wide margin. The Democratic Party wants to end coal and in a state like West Virginia where coal mining plays a huge role in their economy, being a Democrat is no advantage.

Manchin is fearful of going out a “loser” whose bag of tricks has finally run out:

Like Biden, Manchin believes he’s the best person to beat this Trump-y character [Justice], and he’s probably right. But he also knows there’s a good chance he could lose: a poll for Mitch McConnell’s Senate Leadership Fund shows Manchin trailing Justice by 10 points in a head-to-head. If Trump wins the G.O.P. nomination, he’ll likely bolster Justice, too. Trump won West Virginia by 39 points in 2020 and he’ll almost certainly confer support down the ballot. “He doesn’t want to go out a loser,” said a source close to Manchin. “He’s paying very close attention to what Justice does.”

A senior Senate source said that Manchin has changed his mind multiple times about whether or not he will run. “He’s more wishy-washy than a car wash,” the source said. “For all of the problems he’s caused, he’s a political anomaly and a real asset to Democrats.”

From Red State

Considering that West Virginia has trended redder and redder in recent election cycles (Donald Trump won the state handily in 2016 and again in 2020), Manchin has good reason to run away from the “Democrat” label – especially as Sen. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) periodically dangles the “party switch” carrot in front of Manchin.

In other words, despite Manchin continuously telling the media that he wants to do “what’s best for West Virginians” (with that “best” thing in his view being for Manchin to stay in office for the foreseeable future) in the end, what Joe Manchin is most worried about is, well, Joe Manchin’s ego and legacy, and after the chickens came home to roost for Manchin over the bogusly-named “Inflation Reduction Act,” Manchin might just be on the verge of bowing out gracefully to avoid voters showing him at the ballot box exactly how they feel over his betrayal.

As I’ve said before, the stage is being set for a mighty fall for Joe Manchin regardless of who his GOP opponent may be (assuming he runs again). And if all of this bears out in 2024 – or if he decides to retire at the end of this term, he will have no one to blame for his political downfall but himself.

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One Response

  1. He also changes his mind about how he votes. He says one thing and then changes at the last minute.

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