Sen Elizabeth Warren is up for reelection in 2024 and all of a sudden she is no longer a lock to win it. Recent polling shows that she is 15 points behind the possible Republican candidate. In Massachusetts? Unlikely though it seems, there is a good reason to believe the Republican could not only win but could win in a landslide. Who is this candidate? Former Gov. Charlie Baker (R-Mass) .
He won two terms in the deep blue state, the second by a landslide and he was one of the most popular governors when he was in office. He currently leads Warren by 15 points, 49 to 34. The problem at the moment is that he is currently not a candidate and only insiders know if he is even interested in the job. But, then again, he has not said he would not run. Knowing you have the advantage of such a large majority is bound to be tempting.
Fiscal Alliance Foundation spokesman Paul D. Craney said in a press release:
“Senator Warren has significantly higher unfavorable numbers than her fellow Democrats statewide and that seems to be creating an opening for Baker, who always enjoyed large amounts of cross-party appeal. Looking at the cross tabs, Republicans seem to coalesce behind Baker (79%) in a way that Democrats do not around Warren (56%), and Baker leads with independent/unenrolled voters 2-1 at 57-26%.”
When confronted by the polling data, Warren said, “Palefaces speak with forked tongue.”
2024 Massachusetts Senate GE:
Charlie Baker (R) 49% (+15)
Elizabeth Warren (D-Inc) 34%
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) May 11, 2023
A recent poll, courtesy of the Fiscal Alliance Foundation, has found that a whopping 49 percent of likely voters would support Baker should he decide to challenge Warren for her Senate seat. Warren is up for reelection in 2024 and lags behind Baker by 15 points, coming in at 34 percent. It seems the former governor’s popularity is still going strong, leaving his opponent with some catching up to do.
Contributing to his impressive lead is the fact that Baker, a moderate Republican, has a significant advantage among independent voters in the Bay State.
Warren’s favorability rating is only barely in the positive, with 49 percent of respondents expressing a favorable opinion of her, while 44 percent view her unfavorably. Within the unfavorable category, a notable 35 percent hold a strong “very unfavorable” view of her. Craney observed that Warren’s favorability rating suggests she lacks the same level of confidence enjoyed by some of her fellow prominent elected Democratic officials in Massachusetts. Both Warren and Baker last ran for reelection in 2018, and he received more votes and won by a larger margin than Warren when she was reelected to the U.S. Senate.
Despite being a blue state, Massachusetts has managed to elect moderate Republicans for statewide office. In 2002, Mitt Romney was elected governor. In 2009, Scott Brown was elected to the U.S. Senate, winning a special election for the seat vacated by the late Sen. Ted Kennedy. In 2014, Charlie Baker won the governorship and was reelected four years later. Baker may not be conservatives’ favorite Republican, but he’d be a far better person to have in the U.S. Senate than Elizabeth Warren. But the real question is, will he run?
Although the poll results paint a promising picture for Baker, he was appointed as the president of the National Collegiate Athletics Association (NCAA) a few months ago, and there’s no indication that Baker wants to pursue the seat, given his new role and responsibilities in the NCAA. Time will tell if he decides to dive into the political arena once again, but I suspect it will take more than just one poll to convince him to jump back into politics.